ACTUAL FOOTY INTELLIGENCE
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Actual Footy · Player Intelligence · Season 2026

Player Intelligence — Player Contribution Index · measured against each player's own history · 2026

Every AFL player since 2017. Every stat.

↹ Rank ◴ Season ◈ Compare ⚆ Coleman ★ My Players
Season
Round
Team
Role
Sort
Career games
Rows
View
Rank by ◫ Contribution Per-Possession Actual 13 Possession & Ball Use Scoring & Forward Contest & Clearance Defence & Pressure
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Methodology & provenance

PCI — the Player Contribution Index — is one number for every game: a player's real contribution to winning football, where 1.00 is the level of a typical winning-team player. Career, Season and Last 3 are the running averages. Alongside it sit the player's role and their four qualities — Ability · Capacity · Consistency · Adaptability. Click any player for the full breakdown.

One thing to keep in mind. PCI measures contribution to winning, not a player's overall value — so forwards naturally top an all-players list, because they turn a team's pressure into scoreboard. It's a category error to read it as a straight MVP table. To compare players fairly, filter by position. Built on every match from 2017 to now (2020 excluded), and it correctly picks the match winner about 91% of the time.
Actual Footy · Unit Intelligence · Season 2026

Unit Intelligence — DEF · MID · FWD · ranked by unit rating within unit · 2026

How each club's three lines — defence, midfield and forward — stack up against the same line at every other club.

Every side has three lines — defence, midfield and forward. Our unit rating scores each on the same 1.000 scale we use everywhere (1.000 = winning level, higher is better). By default it reads a line's best six, so a couple of fringe players don't drag a strong group down — flip Depth to Full unit to average everyone. It's a read on current form, not value.

↹ Rank ⊞ Actual 13 Contributions ⏃ 50 Funnel ◴ Trend UNIT_v1 · MEAN-PCI
Season
Team
Unit All 3 DEF MID FWD
Window Season Last 3 Round
Anchor round
Depth Best 6 Full unit
Composite Unit rating
The four phases ADVANCE CONVERT CONTROL DISRUPT
Or a match stat
Sort ↓ Highest ↑ Lowest
1.000 BASELINE
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Methodology & provenance

Every side splits into three units — Defence · Midfield · Forwards. UCI (the Unit Contribution Index) is the average contribution of a unit's best six, so a couple of rotation players don't drag an elite group down — switch Depth to Full unit to average everyone. It reads a unit's current form, not its overall value. The 50 Funnel by unit shows how each unit moves the ball forward.

Actual Footy · Team Intelligence · Season 2026

Team Intelligence — 18 teams ranked by team rating · current round

All 18 clubs at a glance. Click any crest to open its full intelligence page — form, strengths, weaknesses, and where it really sits.

How each side contributes to winning, measured against the winning benchmark — a team rating of 1.00 is the level of a typical winning team. The four phases — Advance · Convert · Control · Disrupt — are weighted by how much each actually drives wins.

★ Intelligence ♥ My Club ↹ Rank ◴ Season ◈ Compare ⏃ 50 Funnel
Actual Footy · Round Intelligence

Round Intelligence — select a round to view its match intelligence

Every game in the round — the final result, who really controlled it, and our verdict on each side's performance.

Every match this round, graded on how each side contributed to winning. Click a match card to open its full report.

Season
Round
View ▦ Match cards ≣ Compact table
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Actual Footy · Season Intelligence

Season Intelligence — rounds ranked by round rating

How the whole competition has moved round by round across 2026, using our team rating for every side.

The season at a glance — each round's team rating, the four phase scores, and True-Win / Fortunate-Win / Self-Inflicted / True-Defeat counts. Click a round to drill in.

Season
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Actual Footy · Form & Conditions

Performance Intelligence — match conditions

The weather, venues and benchmarks behind the numbers — the context layer behind every read.

Conditions — how a player's output shifts under different match conditions, and how reliably. Winning Football — how the Actual 13 and the traditional metrics separate winning from losing — now has its own room at the top of the Research Desk.

Conditions that lift or limit What makes a player better — or worse The conditions that move a player's output, ranked by effect
Some conditions lift a player, others hold them back — wet weather, a big crowd, interstate travel, a particular opponent. This board ranks the conditions with the biggest effect across the league. Most are really about which players a condition suits, rather than the same player swinging both ways — so read it as a profile, not a promise.
Condition leaders Top 5 players in the league for each condition Who's most lifted — and most limited — by every condition
The real top 5 players in the league for every condition the data covers. Top performers = most lifted by the condition; Most suppressed = most held back by it. The caus badge shows how confident we are it's a genuine effect, not noise. Weather is computed live from the rainfall feed (closed-roof games excluded).
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Ask the engine How a condition affects a player, team or match Pick a player and a condition — see the effect
Take a league-wide pattern and check whether it actually holds for one specific player or team. If the evidence isn't strong enough to say, the answer tells you that straight — no guessing.
Clear ⌖ Ask CIL
Portal idle
Compose a query above
Select a dimension, choose path (Impact / Role rating) and subject, then click Ask CIL. The portal renders the population effect for the dimension and applies the render-decision gate to the selected subject.
Actual Footy · Fan Intelligence · Season 2026

Search Pulse — fan attention & demand context

What supporters are searching for, where demand is moving, what triggered it — and whether the football evidence backs the attention.

A fan attention & demand layer beside the season — not sentiment, not prediction. Search interest is directional (Google Trends is relative and noisy). The payoff is the last card: where public attention and actual TSI performance agree, and where they don't.

Season
Round
Window ◷ This round ◴ Season to date
Sort clubs
The TSI-native read · Card 6 Performance vs Attention Attention momentum (search z) minus form momentum (team-rating z). Positive = attention running ahead of the football; negative = under-covered improvement.
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The inverse of hype Invisible Excellence The best football story nobody's searching — where the TSI evidence is strong but public attention is low. Output ahead of attention.
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Card 1 Club Search Share Each club's share of total AFL club search interest this round.
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Player search rankings Who the football public is searching Top searched players (watchlist = top-40 by impact, engine-derived). Att gap = search rank vs actual impact rank — a positive gap means searched more than their output warrants.
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Coach search rankings Coach attention & pressure Search movement across senior coaches (paired with the club's TSI form — coach search often reads as pressure), assistants in the frame for senior jobs (ASST), and the open market (MARKET). Hand-maintained watchlist (edit coaches.json).
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Cards 2 & 3 Momentum & Shock Heating up vs their own baseline · and abnormal spikes (z-score).
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Card 4 Intent Mix What the searches are about — fixture, injury, membership, tickets, trade… (signal, not sentiment).
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Card 5 · the search map of Australia Who each state searches The club each state & territory searches most (search affinity = a club's local interest × its overall pull). Tasmania is shown ahead of the Devils' 2028 entry. Click a state for its top three.
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Attribution What was happening this round Calendar events that plausibly moved attention. Search without context is just a line chart.
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Actual Footy · Media Intelligence · Season 2026

The Agenda — the AFL conversation, tested against the football

What the football media is discussing now — ranked by narrative force and source spread, then checked against the Actual Footy evidence. Coverage is attention, not truth.

The AFL media cycle as a control room, not a news feed. Every major narrative is scored for reach, then tested against the Actual Footy evidence (team rating · verdict · impact). The payoff is the first card: where the conversation and the actual performance agree — and where the attention is running ahead of, or behind, the football. Diagnostic, never a forecast.

Season
Round
Evidence basis ◴ Season evidence ◷ This round's evidence
Sort clubs
The signature read · tested against the football Media vs Evidence How much each club is being talked about, right next to how well they're actually playing. Overhyped = more noise than the football warrants; Underrated = playing better than the coverage; Fairly covered = the two line up; Flattered by the win = a lucky result is driving the story.
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Card 1 · ranked by Media Gravity The AFL Agenda The biggest AFL stories right now, ranked by buzz — how loudly they're being discussed and across how many outlets. Each shows whether the football backs it.
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The editorial product Overheated & Under-covered Where the noise most outruns the football — and where clubs and players who are quietly playing well are going unreported.
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Card · who owns the cycle Club Media Share Each club's slice of all the AFL coverage we tracked this week.
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What the agenda is about Topic Mix Share of tracked stories by topic.
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Media vs fan demand Media vs the Fans Where the media and the fans aren't looking at the same clubs — who the media talks about more than fans are searching for, and who the fans want more of. Needs a Search Pulse snapshot.
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The outlets · noise vs facts Who follows the football? Every outlet in the cycle, rated on whether their coverage tracks the actual football — covering the real stories in measured language — or chases the hype. 0 = chases hype · 50 = neutral · 100 = follows the football.
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The outlets · how they treat players Respect for Players How each outlet frames players in its headlines — analytical and fair, or pile-on and sensational. A directional read of published headlines, not a judgement of any journalist.
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How to read this
Media Gravity ranks each narrative by how loudly it's being discussed — source authority × how many distinct outlets carry it × recency. It measures attention, not importance and not truth. The Evidence Check is the Actual Footy difference: it puts coverage next to the earned state. A club can be Overheated (talked about more than the football warrants), Under-covered (the football is better than the noise), Scoreboard-led (a Fortunate-Win result is driving the story more than the performance), or Backed (attention tracks the evidence). The diagnosis is complete before any headline is read — the media never moves the verdict.
Actual Footy · The Back Page · Daily Edition

The Back Page — today's football, written from the second scoreboard

The stories Actual Footy is prepared to stand behind. Engine-generated, evidence-led, and written from the TSI playbook. The scoreboard is evidence. This is the verdict.

Actual Footy's daily paper of recordPowered by Actual Sport Intelligence
First Edition
Coming Soon · Round 19
Coming Soon · Round 19

One day. One argument. One verdict.

Every edition opens with the most Actual Footy story of the day — not the loudest AFL headline, the one the evidence can carry. Where the ladder and the football disagree, the Back Page takes the side of the football. The first edition lands at Round 19.

Lead Editorial The Actual Story Match Verdict Player File Club Dossier Media Correction The Back Pocket Explainer
Today's Edition Preview
  1. 01
    Lead Editorial
    The day's main argument — the verdict, the popular narrative, and where the evidence parts from it.
    R19
  2. 02
    Match Verdict
    Every game turned from a scoreline into a read: who won the result, and who won the football.
    R19
  3. 03
    Player File
    One player, measured against their own role and history — breakout, hidden value, or profile ahead of form.
    R19
  4. 04
    Media Correction
    Where the outside narrative and the evidence diverge — what was said, what the football says, and why.
    R19
  5. 05
    The Hidden Team
    The club the audience has stopped covering that the diagnostics have not stopped rating.
    R19
  6. 06
    The Back Pocket
    Four smaller truths from the week's football — sharp, short, and easy to miss.
    R19
The Verdict · Daily

A single short-form column. One take, very sharp — same place, same tone, every day.

A newspaper says here is what happened. The Back Page says here is the argument the evidence can support.

The Actual Story
The long read

The flagship essay slot — 1,000–1,800 words, two to four a week. The misread, the mechanism, and what changes now. Where the brand builds its intellectual capital.

Every story is labelled
Match pieces carry the read the engine gave the game:
True Win Fortunate Win Self-Inflicted Loss True Defeat
Page 08 · Media
What the AFL world is saying

The Media room tracks the external narrative — who's being talked about, how loudly, and where the coverage is pointing.

Page 10 · Back Page
What Actual Footy publishes

The Back Page is the masthead: the arguments the engine is prepared to stand behind, written from the evidence and kept on the record.

The Archive Opens R19

Every edition becomes part of a permanent, structured record — searchable by club, player, round, verdict, format and evidence type. Nothing the brand argues disappears after 24 hours.

EditorialEssayMatch VerdictPlayer File Club DossierMedia CorrectionExplainer 18 ClubsRoundSeasonCanonical

The Back Page is the publication layer of Actual Footy — engine-generated stories written from the same diagnostic read as the rest of the cockpit, archived into a record of what the second scoreboard revealed. Editions begin at Round 19.

How to read this
Impact (our player contribution measure) reads each player against their own contribution history — 1.00 is that player's typical game, and above 1.0 is above their usual. With a round selected you see that game; with all rounds in scope you see the season so far. Impact · Last 3 is recent form. Role rating sits alongside it and measures how well a player executes their role, against others in the same role. The two answer different questions on purpose — one is contribution to winning, the other is role execution.
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